美国国家安全情报传递机制论析

作为世界上情报体系最为发达的国家，美国国家安全情报机制一直以来备受各方关注。九一一事件催生了美国情报体系全面而彻底的改革。经过十多年的努力，美国情报界实现了从机构林立的分散体系到由国家情报总监办公室领导的有机整体的重大转型。从总体机制来看，美国情报界现已形成情报机构一体化与任务一体化的双轮驱动体系，其情报传递网络不仅涵盖领导、协调、执行三个层级间的纵向传送，而且包括不同情报机构之间的横向协调，基本实现了情报整合与信息共享。美国国家情报总监办公室成为名副其实的美国情报界统领，其下设的反恐、反扩散、反情报和网络情报中心构成了美国国家安全情报分类传递机制的四大支柱。通过比较，四大分类传递机制中最为成熟的是反恐中心，其次是反情报与安全中心，再次是网络威胁情报整合中心，最后是反扩散中心。由于各类情报机制自身发展程度的不同，其改革过程中所面临的挑战也不一样。美国国家安全情报传递机制的改革“瓶颈”既有发展不足导致的结构性困境，也有外部安全环境变化带来的挑战。此外，特朗普政府上台后的一系列政策举措使得美国国家安全情报体系的发展方向呈现出新的态势。     

Corruption Experience and Public Perceptions of Anti-corruption Crackdowns: Experimental Evidence from China

Journal of Chinese Political Science - Are citizens’ attitudes towards government’s effort to fight corruption primarily shaped by social information (such as public media and political...     

边界功能、威胁认知与中国对陆上边界问题的应对

2017年6月,中印在洞朗地区发生边界对峙。中方在此次危机中始终保持了克制,并未通过武力方式解决边界危机。这与中国在1962年运用军事手段应对印度的挑衅截然不同。为何针对与同一个对象国出现的同类性质危机,中国的应对方式存在显著差异?文章认为,中国对陆上边界问题的处理方式,主要受到边界功能和决策者对威胁程度的认知这两个因素的影响。基于中国决策者对边界功能是政治与安全功能凸显还是经济功能优先,以及对对象国行为所带来的威胁认知高低程度不同的判断,将导致中国对边界问题采取四种应对方式:诉诸武力、展示决心(包括军事对峙等)、外交谈判、互利合作。通过对中国处理1962年与2017年两次中印边界危机、1956年中缅边界问题、2004年中俄边界问题的方式进行分析,可以发现上述分析框架得到了初步验证。文章通过探讨中国对陆上边界问题采取不同应对措施的原因,不仅有助于厘清影响中国政府针对陆上边界问题采取差异化应对措施的因素,还有利于为中国恰当地处理中印领土争端及其他陆上争议边界问题提供一定的启示,进而为改善中国周边外交、保障中华民族的伟大复兴提供初步的政策建议。     

霸权护持与美国的代理人战略

霸权护持是霸权国在霸权周期内的主要战略目标。通过考察二战结束以来美国霸权护持的历史轨迹,可以看出,代理人战略是美国频频实践但仍缺乏深入研究的现象。代理人战略是一种国家不直接出面,而是借助安全与外交领域的代理人实现间接制衡目标的战略手段。明确对手且制定相应策略是美国大战略的重要特征,当前美国政府认定的霸权威胁来源包括战略竞争对手、地区反美国家及恐怖主义等。基于战略目标的不同,美国针对上述三种威胁所采取的代理人战略的类型亦存在差异,分别是国家代理人战略、复合代理人战略以及次国家代理人战略。美国寻找的代理人一般与目标对象存在重大冲突或战略矛盾,代理人具有消耗与削弱对手的能力,代理人战略的实施路径包括威胁共识搭建及借力打力实践两个阶段。对于冷战后美国代理人战略的实践进行考察,有助于我们深入把握这种战略形式的逻辑延展及未来走向。     

The EU-China partnership: balancing between divergence and convergence

Asia Europe Journal - The EU-China relationship is driven by two distinct underlying logics: a power-based one and a transformational one. The power-based logic is premised on a belief that because...     

Introduction

ABSTRACT

This article argues for the analysis of the flow of ideological discourse through society within and across three distinct but interrelated levels: (1) the canonically defined, or macro level, (2) the intermediate or meso level of competitive political appeals, political relevant public discourse and cultural criticism, and (3) the everyday or micro level of conceptual use by non-experts. This differentiation among levels of ideological action and influence helps us to clarify the objects and appropriate methods of ideological analysis. Methods applied in specific cases must facilitate an effective focus on phenomena on one of these levels while still allowing recognition of the complex forms of direct and indirect conceptual influence and connection between the levels. The article also serves as an introduction to the volume, giving a brief account of the analysis and argument of each contribution.     

The range and limitation of sub-national regime variations under electoral authoritarianism: The case of Russia

ABSTRACT

As has been demonstrated by scholars, different levels of a polity may encompass different political regimes. In this study we examine variations in regional political regimes which have developed under Russia's system of electoral authoritarianism. Comparing the results of two cycles of regional assembly elections (2008–12 and 2013–17) we analyse and compare elections results and levels of electoral contestation in both the party list (PL) and single member district (SMD) contests. This allows us to identify the range of sub-national regime variations: ‘hegemonic authoritarian’, ‘inter-elite bargain authoritarian’, ‘clearly-competitive authoritarian’, and ‘moderately-competitive authoritarian’ regions. Approximately half of the regions demonstrate stable electoral patterns across both cycles. At the same time, none of the regions go beyond the authoritarian limitations imposed by the Russian regime. The variation is explained by a combination of structural and agency factors with a prevalence of the latter.     

从传统合同到智能合同:由事后法院裁判到事前自动履行的转变

传统合同需要当事人履行具体义务以促使合同目的的实现,且允许各方在现实环境发生变化时加入新的合意或对原合同条款进行修改,产生纠纷后也可以依据法院的裁判机制使权利义务关系趋于平衡。但是,区块链技术的兴起使智能合同能够自动履行当事人约定的各项内容,对纠纷的解决也可以按照合同订立时确定的救济方式自动进行,甚至无需法院的裁判支持。从传统合同到智能合同,最显著的变革在于由事后法院裁判到事前自动履行的转变。技术的进步使法院裁判机制作为权利保障后盾的重要地位受到冲击,智能合同的事前自动履行具有高效率、低成本的优势,为商业世界的交易活动提供新的可能,具有极大的发展潜力。     

Fragility within stability: the state,the clan and political resilience in Somaliland

Abstract

Even in the context of a relatively flourishing state, fragility can be an enduring feature of a political system, particularly in the case of recently established or unrecognised states. This article examines the nature of state-building in a specific context to question the assumption that forms of hybrid governance or pre-existing forms of governance are a necessary evil to be tolerated but which needs ultimately to be overcome during state-building. It does this by adopting the language of resilience and focusing on the case of Somaliland to highlight the role of clan governance as a mechanism of political resilience and as a means of promoting the flexibility required for state-building. Yet, at the same time, the process of state-building often involves formalising governance and limiting the role of traditional social-political forms of governance such as clans, ignoring their role in legitimating and stabilising the political system. However, as this article argues, stability and fragility are inextricably linked; while the clan system has been an important force in stabilising the state, it has also become a pressure point for the state’s latent fragility. By contextualising fragility and stability within the language of resilience, though, this symbiotic relationship can be better analysed.